Солнечная активность за последние 20 лет и ее прогноз на 25-й солнечный цикл

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Abstract

Экспериментальные данные о солнечной активности (числе солнечных пятен Rz, индукции полоидального магнитного поля Солнца в полярных шапках Bп и другие), характеристики межпланетной среды и потоки космических лучей свидетельствуют о том, что Солнце вступило в глубокий минимум своей активности, подобный минимуму Дальтона.

Обнаружена почти функциональная связь максимальной величины Bпмах, наблюдаемой в минимумах солнечной активности, с предстоящим максимумом солнечных пятен. На основе этой связи разработан метод прогнозирования максимального числа солнечных пятен Rzmax и временного хода значений Rz в текущем (в настоящее время 25-ом) цикле солнечной активности.

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About the authors

Ю. И. Стожков

Физический институт им. П. Н. Лебедева Российской академии наук

Author for correspondence.
Email: stozhkovyi@lebedeev.ru
Russian Federation, Москва

В. П. Охлопков

Московский государственный университет имени М. В. Ломоносова

Email: ovpetrovich@yandex.ru

Научно-исследовательский институт ядерной физики имени Д. B. Скобельцына

Russian Federation, Москва

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Average annual values ​​of Rz, from 1000 to the present [2, 3]. The letters denote deep minima of solar activity [1]: O – Oort minimum (1130–1180), W – Wolf minimum (1415–1549), S – Spörer minimum (1415–1540), M – Maunder minimum (1645–1715), D – Dalton minimum (1790–1830). New – modern minimum of solar activity (2007–present).

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3. Fig. 2. Distance from the center of mass of the Solar System to the center of the Sun depending on time (calculation [4]). The horizontal line at the top is drawn for the solar radius r = 2. The letters at the top denote deep minima of solar activity observed in the past (see the caption to Fig. 1). New – the modern deep minimum of solar activity [1].

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4. Fig. 3. Time course of monthly average values ​​of fluxes of secondary charged particles formed by cosmic rays in the atmosphere. Cosmic particle energies were in the range of 200…1500 MeV. The numbers of 11-year solar cycles are indicated at the top. A > 0 and A < 0 denote the positive and negative phases of 22-year solar magnetic cycles. The horizontal dotted line shows the maximum cosmic ray flux, which was previously recorded at the minimum of solar activity of the 20th solar cycle in 1965.

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5. Fig. 4. Dependence of the maximum value of the sunspot number in the 11-year SC, Rzmax, on the maximum value of the solar polar magnetic field induction Bпmax. The Rzmax values ​​are monthly averages. The Bпmax values ​​were obtained at the minima of the SC, and Rzmax were obtained at the maxima of the same cycles. The straight line describes the relationship between Rzмах and Bпmax: Rzмах = 180.5·Bпmax, where Bпmax is given in Gauss. The square is the expected value of Rzмах in the 25th SC.

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6. Fig. 5. Time dependences of the average monthly values ​​of the sunspot numbers Rz(t) in the 22nd (dots) and 18th (triangles) SC. The Rz values ​​were smoothed using five-month data. Both data series were combined in time: May 1986 (22nd SC) was combined with February 1944 (18th SC).

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7. Fig. 6. Time course of the average monthly values ​​of the sunspot number Rz in the 24th and 25th SC. The Rz values ​​are smoothed over five months. The dotted curve is the forecast for the 7th solar activity cycle. In the 7th SC, October 1882 corresponds to March 2020 (25th SC).

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