Vol 61, No 2 (2025)

The model of switching modes of reproduction (SMR) is a heterodox model of endogenous growth in continuous time with a finite number of overlapping generations of capital and a monetary sector. A distinctive feature of the SMR model is that the long-run neutrality of money is violated in the model. The aim of this paper is to advance our understanding of the internal mechanisms of the SMR model, to qualitatively describe the macroeconomic effects present in the model, and to examine how monetary policy affects growth and inflation in it. The original SRM models do not allow closed-form solutions due to their complex structure and therefore, theoretical analysis based on the SRM models is limited to the study of particular numerical solutions. The article considers the author’s version of the SRM model with a continuous set of capital generations, for which, under the assumption that growth is stationary, an approximate explicit solution of the model is derived. It is shown that the increase of the money supply growth rate has a positive effect on inflation, while the effect on economic growth is non-monotonous. We analyse how economic growth and inflation depend on all the other exogenous variables and interpret the dependences explaining the economic mechanisms providing the outcomes. Three regimes of monetary policy are studied: the policy of maximizing growth, the policy of ensuring price stability, and the policy of a compromise between growth and inflation, which involves optimization by the ratio of gross inflation to gross output growth rates. We critically discuss the assumptions underlying the SRM model and the role of these assumptions in the violation of money neutrality in the model as well as the other results.

The paper presents comparative analysis of macroeconomic policies in various countries (in Europe, Asia, North and South America) that had periods of long-term economic growth within the time range between 1933 and 2019. The analysis focuses on different measures adopted by governments of these countries with the aim of making an economic breakthrough and setting a country on a new path of development. The research demonstrates that completely oppose measures proved effective in different countries at different points in time. Some states enhanced government intervention in the economy, while others fostered economic liberalization. In some countries industrial concentration took place, whereas in others mainly small and medium-sized enterprises received support from the government. The same applies to improvement/deterioration in labour standards. Therefore, it is incorrect to try to build an economic system by merely copying foreign experience in order to foster socio-economic and technological development. The above-mentioned thesis is confirmed by referring to the historical experience of thirteen countries. There are, however, traits that countries that experienced long-term economic growth have in common. All of them conducted expansionary macroeconomic policy, supported key economic sectors (primarily agriculture and heavy industry), introduced breakthrough and incremental innovations, made investments in infrastructure, stimulated exports as well as accumulated social capital.

The quality of a country’s economic growth is mainly determined by the ability and capacity of its companies to create and use new knowledge. Creating new knowledge, companies often have to absorb the external knowledge. Knowledge from sources located in countries with higher levels of technological development can play an important role in narrowing the technological gap with these countries. However, foreign knowledge acquisition, especially when domestic firms’ own knowledge base and absorptive capacity are low, can lead to a technological trap. The study aimed to determine whether changes in the use of in-house and external knowledge from foreign sources occur in the process of creating high-degree novelty innovations by the Russian organizations. The novelty of innovations was defined, on the one hand, as the technological novelty of the new products and services, and on the other hand, as their demand in foreign markets. A multinomial regression model was built, in which different levels of the share of the total value of exports of high technological novelty innovations were considered as the dependent variable. As a result, it was found that the majority of domestic enterprises that exported innovations fell into the trap of imitation. However, a small part of companies in certain regions that contributed most to the value of exports, unlike the majority, relied more on their own knowledge base and successfully integrated foreign knowledge into it. The paper proposes some measures aimed at the development of Russian innovative firms’ own knowledge base.

Current scientific discussions are focused on identifying professions and types of economic activity that will become most in demand in the future and determine priority areas for diversification of regional economies. Analysis of such trends is important for forecasting the dynamics of GRP. The purpose of this work is to construct an integral index of structural complexity on the basis of four basic indices of economic complexity of regional economies, calculated by the authors on the basis of data on the structure of employment, the structure of the distribution of enterprises and the structure of GRP. According to Rosstat for 2019 and 2022, four basic complexity indices were formed for 85 regions: the index of complexity of GRP structures based on data on production by types of economic activity (TEA); index of complexity of employment structures of the regions by TEA; index of regional employment structures by occupational groups; index of complexity of distribution structures of enterprises in the regions by TEA. The analysis of 0–1 matrices for all four economic complexity indices under consideration is carried out. The leading positions in the four corresponding ratings are occupied by Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Novosibirsk Region, and the Moscow Region. Four integral indices of structural complexity of regional economies were constructed. Their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. It is shown that the structural complexity of the regional economy has an impact on GRP. Moreover, one of the integral indices is significant in the production function of the GRP of 85 regions according to the data of 2019 and 2022.

This paper attempts to assess the impact of fiscal policy measures conducted in Russian Federation units on gross regional product. For this purpose, we use panel data for 80 Russian regions for 2005–2020. As a method for assessing the response of GRP to the shock of government expenditures, we propose to use a spatial vector autoregression model consisting of three equations for the following endogenous variables: GRP, consolidated budget expenditures, tax revenues. The model also includes a set of exogenous factors: oil prices, MIACR interest rate, expenditures of the Russian Pension Fund. Additionally, we account for the structure of the regional economy. The advantage of the model is the ability to simultaneously consider spatial effects using the contiguity-based matrix and evaluate the impulse response function, while the Cholesky decomposition is used for shock identification. Overall, we estimated 3 SpVAR specifications and considered shocks of government expenditures for 7 categories of regional budgets. The main result of the study is the peak and cumulative values of IRF for 2 and 3 years, which reflect the evolution of the GRP response to an exogenous shock of expenditures over time. For all specifications of the model, the greatest positive effect on GRP is observed for the shock of expenditures on the national economy and education. Depending on the specification, over 3 years after the shock of increasing expenditures by 1%, an expected increase in GRP varies from 0.053 to 0.1% and from 0.051 to 0.1%, respectively.

In this work we analyze methodologies that are used in research to obtain estimates of policies efficiency and will show how Propensity Score Methods can be adopted to the given scarce data on the case of Russian loan guarantee program. We take number of workers employed in Russian SMEs as a target metric; an aim to increase this number to 25 ml workers which is claimed in Russia’s national development goals. The study suggests methods for matching PSM propensity scores that can be applied to obtain an assessment of the effectiveness of a specific government measure. These methods, along with two-stage Heckman regression and panel data models for multi-period Difference-in-Difference expansion, seem to be the most suitable for evaluating the effect of intervention and reducing sampling error. The estimates obtained on the basis of this methodology indicate a significant positive effect of issuing guarantees in terms of increasing employment. Also we highlighted industries with the most positive average treatment effect from the program. Those policy measures the efficiency of which was proved by quantitative research need to be promoted more actively than less efficient measures: authorities need to reduce obstacles that beneficiaries can face to receive government support, to increase financing, to improve SMEs’ awareness of such policy measures.

Any theory is based on a certain axiomatic core, which includes axioms and postulates. The latter includes conclusions and results from other theories or branches of science that are accepted in this theory without proof. Among such postulates accepted in modern economic forecasting are informational criteria, which are used to select the best forecasting model from a set of competing ones. Most often, forecasters use two main criteria — Akaike and Schwarz. The article demonstrates, using the example of short-term forecasting of 120 different data series through AR(p) autoregressions, that in practice this tool does not perform as well as expected. An alternative to the informational criteria can be a criterion based on Bayesian hypothesis testing, which is outlined in the article. This criterion incorporates information about the likelihood of describing prior and posterior data, the cross-accounting of which corresponds to Bayesian selection. A comparative analysis of the application of informational criteria and the new criterion, the results of which are presented in the article, supports the latter criterion, which is recommended for practical use.